מהות המחשבה

Although for most, it is isn't "that time of the year", since it isn't even that year yet, for me it always is. And if political prediction is a field, I happen to be not bad at it.

Every two years the American people vote in a general election for Representatives in the House of Representatives, Senators, Governors and others. Presidential elections occur every four years, and the elections in between are known as "mid-term elections". The analysis I'm about about to give regards the 2010 US mid-term election.

The US Senate consists of 100 members, 2 represting each state. Senators serve 6 year terms. The House of Representatives (aka: "the House") consists of 435 members, representing each state proportionate to their population (California, being the most populated state has 53 reprsentatives in the House, while the least populated states have only 1). Every general election, the entire House of Representatives disperses, but only a third of the Senate does aswell. All laws and bill passed by the US congress must be approved by a majority in both the Senate and the House. Thus, the Senate and the House are equal in their power, However, a Senator is substantially more important than a Congessman, due to the fact that he is much rarer and serves a longer term. It is not uncommon for an American politician to serve several years in the House, and then run for the Senate.

At the present time, The Democratic Party controls the Senate 60 - 40, and the House 257 - 178.

Senate Races to Keep an Eye On:

New Hampshire:

The senior Republican New Hampshire Senator, Judd Gregg, after three terms in office. Although historically New Hampshire has been a Republican state, recent elections have shown increasing Democratic strength, deposing both it's Republican congressmen in 2006 and it's other Republican Senator, John Sununu, in 2008. Congressman Paul Hodes is the leading Democrat running for the seat, and is expected to win easily unless John Sununu decides to run. Sununu would make the race interesting, but is not sure to win. My guess is that Hodes will win in any event, giving the Democrats the senior Republican seat in New Hampshire.

Ohio:

Ohio is somewhat similar to New Hampshire, due to the fact that it too was a strong Republican state and has been gradually sloughtering its senior Republicans in Recent years. In 2006, the Dems took over the Governship, a Senator and House Seat. In 2008 Obama won the state (Bush won in 2000 and in 2004) and Democrats took over another 3 House seats. It apears that Ohio will probably elect a Democrt for Senate, since there are no strong Republican in the horizon. However, a bloodbath is beginning between two Democratic candidates, Lieutenant Governor Lee fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. A vicious primary could potentially hurt them. One way or another, I expect the Democrats to pick up this seat aswell, also anihilating Republican control of senior Ohio positions.

TBC